A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
