Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
